If you had asked me a year ago whether the Windows Phone 7 mobile OS and smartphone would be as wildly successful as Silverlight, I would have said, "No way!" It is widely known that Silverlight adoption is the best success story in Microsoft developer division history. Plain and simple, Silverlight is a great technology that hit a market when it desperately needed one. And to keep it fresh and relevant and packed with features, Microsoft has versioned Silverlight four times over 2 1/2 years. Silverlight is a great success story. We love Silverlight, and what frustrations we have with it usually are rooted in the fact that it just doesn't run everywhere like it should.
When the Windows Phone 7 hype started a year ago, I was skeptical. And even after Windows Phone 7 shipped and went into general availability last fall, I was still skeptical. I have been frequently known to say: "BlackBerry owns the enterprise, Apple owns the consumer, and Android owns the technology elite. There is not much room for Windows Phone 7 to make a dent anywhere."
I've been using a Windows Phone 7 smartphone for a long time now… well, long in technology time: close to a year. I used a prototype device in production for a number of months, and for the last four months I've been using an LG device with AT&T as my provider. Since I get to hang with the technology elite, I am frequently asked about my Windows Phone 7. I typically say, "I love the OS. Microsoft did an awesome job." Then I typically continue by saying something like, "My device is okay, and new, more powerful feature-packed devices will continue to enter the market as it matures. And since in my job I have to actually talk on the device by using it as a telephone, I am less than pleased." Then the conversation quickly moves to "carrier bashing." At which point I show a few of the unique features of the device, such as the social networking integration, to swing the conversation to positive again.
A Sea Change for Phone 7 Adoption
But two interesting things happened to me recently that serve as "market indicators" for me:
1. I sat in a meeting last week with all "business people." No one in the room was technical… at all. These people are financial types—not my types. So, during the meeting when it got a bit boring and over my head, I discreetly took numerous peeks at email on my Windows Phone 7. When the meeting adjourned, one of the guys said in front of the entire group, "How do you like your Windows Phone 7?" Shocked, I retorted, "I'm surprised you actually know what a Windows Phone 7 is, let alone recognize it." And I gave my usual answer (mentioned previously). Interestingly, every one of them agreed. And here is the shocking part. They all showed me that they each carry two phones: an iPhone and "one to talk on," which is a simple Verizon phone with no Internet access. At that point I said, "Well, when this one is available on Verizon, you'll be able to carry one device."
2. Both my teenagers expressed a desire to get a Windows Phone 7. These are pretty well-rounded kids who have carried Androids and iPhones forever and who would rather die than have anything consumer-related from Microsoft. Surprised, I asked them both why and got basically the same answer: "I have a friend who has one, and it's awesome." I thought to myself: "A grassroots Windows Phone 7 swell within the elite teenager community? No way!"
Is this Windows Phone 7 adoption going faster than I thought? Significantly faster than I ever predicted? Faster than Silverlight? Well, after doing some research, I've found that the answers are "yes" and "yes" and "maybe," which shocks me. Here are the relevant stats: